“Any surprises in the January CPI data from Bavaria and Brandenburg will clearly influence short-term rate expectations, with anything higher than expected likely to boost the euro.”
“We could get an IFO number above expectations, because data across the region is looking stronger. The market will be pretty pessimistic in that case, especially given the hawkish rhetoric we've had from the ECB.”
“We'll get more buyers with yields around these levels. People won't want to call the end to the Fed rate cycle too quickly though, so I doubt we'll get a big rally.”
“The prospect now for any reform of Italy's public debt must be close to zero. I wouldn't want to hold Italian bonds until they get to a spread that acknowledges those risks, and they certainly don't at the moment.”
