“What we're seeing in terms of currency movements - and it will probably continue at least over the near-term - is a shift in global monetary policy expectations. There's a gearing-down of expectations for Fed tightening, coupled with increased tightening expectations elsewhere.”
“The Bank of Canada cannot afford to be complacent if it wants to keep inflation in check over its 18-24 month time horizon ... Look for the overnight rate to peak at 4 percent.”
“If we end up with a majority government you could see a bit of a rally in the currency but it would be short-lived. Canada's economy is comfortably in surplus and that backdrop isn't going to change, no matter who wins.”
“In our view, there is still is every reason for the Bank of Canada to continue to nudge its rate higher, and we are not changing our call for a four per cent (overnight) rate by April.”
